Impact of climate change on maize yield in China from 1979 to 2016

Climate change severely impacts agricultural production, which jeopardizes food security. China is the second largest maize producer in the world and also the largest consumer of maize. Analyzing the impact of climate change on maize yields can provide effective guidance to national and international economics and politics. Panel models are unable to determine the group-wise heteroscedasticity, cross-sectional correlation and autocorrelation of datasets, therefore we adopted the feasible generalized least square(FGLS) model to evaluate the impact of climate change on maize yields in China from 1979–2016 and got the following results:(1) During the 1979–2016 period, increases in temperature negatively impacted the maize yield of China. For every 1°C increase in temperature, the maize yield was reduced by 5.19 kg 667 m–2(1.7%). Precipitation increased only marginally during this time, and therefore its impact on the maize yield was negligible. For every 1 mm increase in precipitation, the maize yield increased by an insignificant amount of 0.043 kg 667 m–2(0.014%).(2) The impacts of climate change on maize yield differ spatially, with more significant impacts experienced in southern China. In this region, a 1°C increase in temperature resulted in a 7.49 kg 667 m–2 decrease in the maize yield, while the impact of temperature on the maize yield in northern China was insignificant. For every 1 mm increase in precipitation, the maize yield increased by 0.013 kg 667 m–2 in southern China and 0.066 kg 667 m–2 in northern China.(3) The resilience of the maize crop to climate change is strong. The marginal effect of temperature in both southern and northern China during the 1990–2016 period was smaller than that for the 1979–2016 period.     

基于格网的GCM数据修订分析未来海南岛农业水热资源的变化特征

以海南岛为研究区域，选用5个大气环流模式（GCMs）1970−1999年的逐日输出数据和同期地面气象观测数据，使用空间插值降尺度到0.5°×0.5°格网。以格网单元为基础，应用系统误差修订（修正值法或比值法）和多模式集合平均方法（贝叶斯模型平均法BMA或等权重平均法EW），训练与验证GCMs输出值并进行综合修订。在此基础上，分析RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下，未来海南岛近期（2020−2059年）和远期（2060−2099年）农业水热资源，包括年平均气温、1月平均气温、≥10℃积温、≥20℃积温、年降水量、1月降水量和≥20℃界限温度生长期间降水量的变化特征。结果表明：GCMs输出值的系统误差和BMA权重系数在格网间存在较大的空间差异，且GCMs输出值低估逐日最高气温约3.55℃，高估逐日最低气温约1.19℃，逐日降水量仅为观测值的54.35%。基于格网的综合修订，可有效降低GCMs输出值在空间上的不确定性，BMA与EW的修订结果相似，均优于单一GCM模式。通过格网BMA综合修订后，最高气温、最低气温和降水量在验证期的相关系数r分别约提升0.10、0.07和0.06；均方根误差RMSE分别约降低2.38℃、1.01℃和1.01mm；较单一GCM相对观测值的偏差平均约减少3.25℃、1.13℃和25.67mm。未来海南岛农业热量资源在空间上主要表现为从中部向外围逐渐升高，高温主要分布在南部至西部沿海地区，年平均气温的增幅全岛较为接近，1月平均气温、≥10℃积温和≥20℃积温的增幅分别表现为由东向西、由北向南和由中部向外围递减。在时间上，RCP8.5情景下所有农业热量资源均为极显著增加且增温最快，RCP4.5情景为先增加后平缓，RCP2.6情景较为平缓，远期无显著增温。未来海南岛降水资源在空间上转为由东向西逐步递减的格局，南部和北部沿海地区降水变率增加，西部和中部降水变率减少，在时间上无显著变化趋势。随着未来海南岛气候变暖和降水格局的改变，农作物适宜种植面积扩大，会对农业生产带来巨大挑战，应提前布局，做好趋利避害。     

稻曲病菌交配型基因MAT1-2-1和MAT1-2-8的特性分析

 有性生殖在真菌的生活史和进化过程中具有重要作用,而交配型基因是控制有性生殖的关键因子。前期研究发现稻曲病菌(Villosiclava virens)MAT1-2型菌株中包含MAT1-2-1和MAT1-2-8两个交配型基因,但是它们如何调控稻曲病菌有性生殖依然不清楚。本文研究了它们在不同侵染和生长发育时期的表达模式和编码的蛋白结构特性。研究表明MAT1-2-1在侵染不同阶段一直下调表达;而MAT1-2-8在侵染早期(5 dpi)上调表达,在侵染后期下调表达。与营养菌丝阶段比较,MAT1-2-1和MAT1-2-8在有性发育过程菌核形成、菌核萌发、子座原基形成和子座成熟4个阶段的表达量都是下降的,在菌核形成阶段表达量最低。生物信息学分析显示MAT1-2-1和MAT1-2-8具有磷酸化位点,为非分泌蛋白,无明显的跨膜结构域。蛋白同源比对分析表明MAT1-2-1与香柱菌(Epichloë typhina)的MAT1-2-1同源性最高,而MAT1-2-8与绿僵菌(Metarhizium)的MBR_08192蛋白同源性最高。进一步研究发现MAT1-2-1和MAT1-2-8能够互作,并分别主要定位在细胞核和细胞基质中。通过质谱技术鉴定到MAT1-2-1的一些候选互作蛋白,如假定Ran交换因子Prp20/Pim1(KDB12229.1)、假定rRNA处理蛋白Ebp2(KDB12923.1)及组蛋白H1(KDB12711.1)等。因此,以上结果为研究稻曲病菌交配型基因MAT1-2-1和MAT1-2-8调控有性生殖的生物学功能奠定了基础。     

云南不同气候带农业气候资源变化特征研究

为分析全省平均以及各气候带光能、热量、水分资源的时空变化特征,使用云南115站及6个气候带代表站1961—2018年的气候要素计算各地农业气候资源统计量。结果表明,光能资源变化以减少趋势为主,出现显著突变,各气候带太阳辐射变化可能会引起云南太阳辐射高低值中心发生变化,2009年以来辐射明显增加可能会导致太阳辐射出现新的变化趋势和突变点;热量资源一致显著增加,喜凉及喜温作物的活动积温、积温持续时间及无霜期长度均显著增加,并且呈现初日提前、终日推后的趋势,对作物生长有利;水分资源总体呈现减少趋势,尤其21世纪以来下降趋势明显,亚热带地区暖干化现象突出,干旱风险等级较高。     

气候变化情景下流苏香竹潜在分布区预测

流苏香竹（Chimonocalamus fimbriatus）是云南特有珍稀竹种，主要分布于云南西南部。文章以野外调查获取的流苏香竹分布信息为主，运用最大熵模型（MaxEnt）同时结合地理信息系统（ArcGIS），基于19个气候因子，预测其在当前及未来气候变化情景下的潜在分布区。结果表明：当前流苏香竹的高适生区和中适生区主要分布于德宏州、保山市和临沧市等地，除迪庆州、丽江市和昭通市外，云南其他区域均有低适生区零星分布。在未来2050s和2070s的2个时间段，基于2种不同共享社会经济路径（SSP1-2.6和SSP5-8.5），流苏香竹的高适生区面积呈减少的趋势，尤其是SSP5-8.5路径下，高适生区面积仅为当前的12.51%（2050s）和18.63%（2070s）；中、低适生区在SSP1-2.6路径下，显著扩张（2050s）或略微扩张（2070s），在SSP5-8.5路径下，则大幅收缩。流苏香竹野外实际分布区及其潜在分布区均以斑块状为主，可能与云南特殊的地形、地貌有关。影响流苏香竹分布的主导气候因子为最湿月份降水量、最暖月份最高温度、最干季度降水量和平均气温日较差。流苏香竹对气候变化比较敏感，根据其野外分布状况，建议以就地保护为主、迁地保护为辅，在其潜在适生区内适当引种栽培。     

Looking back on development and disaster‐related displacement and resettlement,anticipating climate‐related displacement in the Asia Pacific region

The realisation that climate change might necessitate resettlement of people displaced initially raised interest in the experience of development‐forced displacement and resettlement (DFDR). Looking back, in 1980 the first international policy on involuntary resettlement was approved to address perceived weaknesses in state property and expropriation law to safeguard people in the way of development projects. Since then international policy and praxis have brought global attention to developmentally displaced people but have not guaranteed them an effective safeguard. Recently, renewed attention has focussed on state legal and governance frameworks substantively and procedurally. Identifying four key policy objectives that resonate with climate change displacement I analyse their treatment in a data base of DFDR laws and regulations from 40 Asia Pacific states. This analysis finds overall little legal congruence. Innovative new formulations in some Asian state laws address recent public criticisms and research findings, but mostly are yet to demonstrate positive outcomes for displaced people. Pacific states increasingly abandon expropriation law to negotiate lease terms for public infrastructure projects with customary landowners that do not extinguish customary title. Any laws governing climate change relocations must protect rights, livelihoods, well‐being, inclusive decision‐making and community initiatives with procedures whilst not relinquishing climate‐change‐reducing action.     

木薯间作糯玉米的高产高效模式分析

为研究不同栽种规格的木薯间作糯玉米模式和发掘高产高效间作模式，对木薯净作，糯玉米净作和8种木薯间作糯玉米模式进行了鲜薯产量和经济效益的研究。结果表明：木薯间作糯玉米模式是可行的，体现出明显的间作优势。发现不同间作模式的经济效益不同，其中处理9(大行距100 cm，小行距70 cm)的鲜薯产量(51 274.36 kg/hm2)最高，处理4(行距100 cm)的经济效益(52 794.15元/hm2)最高，处理9的经济效益(46 556.97元/hm2)排第3位。综合评价认为，处理9的木薯间作糯玉米模式最合理。试验结果为进一步推广高产高效木薯间作糯玉米模式提供了有力依据。     

Mapping the current and future distributions of Onosma species endemic to Iran

Climate change may cause shifts in the natural range of species especially for those that are geographically restricted and/or endemic species. In this study, the spatial distribution of five endemic and threatened species belonging to the genus Onosma (including O. asperrima, O. bisotunensis, O. kotschyi, O. platyphylla, and O. straussii) was investigated under present and future climate change scenarios: RCP2.6 (RCP, representative concentration pathway; optimistic scenario) and RCP8.5 (pessimistic scenario) for the years 2050 and 2080 in Iran. Analysis was conducted using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to provide a basis for the protection and conservation of these species. Seven environmental variables including aspect, depth of soil, silt content, slope, annual precipitation, minimum temperature of the coldest month, and annual temperature range were used as main predictors in this study. The model output for the potential habitat suitability of the studied species showed acceptable performance for all species (i.e., the area under the curve (AUC)>0.800). According to the models generated by MaxEnt, the potential current patterns of the species were consistent with the observed areas of distributions. The projected climate maps under optimistic and pessimistic scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively) of 2050 and 2080 resulted in reductions and expansions as well as positive range changes for all species in comparison to their current predicted distributions. Among all species, O. bisotunensis showed the most significant and highest increase under the pessimistic scenario of 2050 and 2080. Finally, the results of this study revealed that the studied plant species have shown an acute adaptability to environmental changes. The results can provide useful information to managers to apply appropriate strategies for the management and conservation of these valuable Iranian medicinal and threatened plant species in the future.     

芸薹属及其他异源多倍体植物的基因表达特征研究进展

远缘杂交及异源多倍化导致许多重要作物的起源与进化，而芸薹属栽培异源四倍种是研究作物异源多倍化的模式系统之一。异源多倍体是如何调控及协调来自不同二倍体祖先的不同基因组的遗传行为及基因表达，是过去二十年间的研究热点和重要的生物学问题。利用不断发展的分子生物学技术，一方面揭示出芸薹属及其他多倍体物种基因组表现出动态性质，即在形成初期及长期进化过程中持续发生遗传及表观遗传的变化；另一方面发现异源多倍化过程中伴随着大量的基因表达模式改变，包括非加性表达、超亲表达、表达水平显性、部分同源偏向表达、基因剂量平衡效应等现象。上述基因组结构、表观遗传改变以及基因表达模式的调控，使新产生的多倍体得以成功进化为新物种。     

Public perceptions of ecosystem services and preferences for design scenarios of the flooded bank along the Three Gorges Reservoir: Implications for sustainable management of novel ecosystems

The newly formed extensive flooded land associated with the Three Gorges Reservoir hold great potentials to provide ecosystem services (ESs) for surrounding cities and communities. Conflicting values and conventional management strategies may complicate and inhibit broad-scale decision-making for this novel ecosystem. Public attitudes are a crucial influence in the way this process plays out. This study was conducted to assess how the reservoir bank is perceived by the general public of Chongqing Municipality in terms of importance of riparian ESs, and preference for corresponding landscape design styles through photo-questionnaire interviewing. Although Chongqing citizens know little of the “ecosystem services” concept, they do recognise riparian environmental and ecological benefits especially the bank protection and pollution interception functions, while benefits of habitats for wildlife and flood attenuation were of less concern. Recreational values were least appreciated, which is inconsistent with other studies. This may be attributed to a wider, intensive environmental education in various social media in today’s China. But publicity has been dominated by toxic air, water and soil pollution control rather than the benefits of nature conservation and personal contact with nature. In line with recognition of ESs, there is quite strong preference for the forested design scenario and particularly vegetation components across the socio-demographic spectrum. Overall, socio-demographic variables have very low explanatory power for the perceptual responses. Our study also revealed misunderstandings around riparian functions and a gap between public expectations and special abiotic and biotic prerequisites in restoring novel ecosystems. Finally, we discuss the relevance of this research to urban novel ecosystems in general, and implications for raising public awareness, engaging appropriate public values in sustainable design and management of such ecosystems.